The value of improved enso prediction to US agriculture Academic Article uri icon


  • The economic value of long-range weather prediction is measured by the increase in social welfare arising from the use of the prediction in economic decisionmaking. This paper describes a study of the economic value of ENSO prediction to U.S. agriculture. The interdisciplinary study involved the analysis of data and models from meteorology, plant science, and economics under a framework based on Bayesian decision analysis. The estimated annual Value of perfect ENSO prediction to U.S. agriculture is $323 million.

publication date

  • 1998