PROBLEM: Commercial fishing is one of the least safe occupations. METHOD: The researchers develop a fishing vessel accident probability model for fishing areas off the northeastern United States using logit regression and daily data from 1981 to 1993. RESULTS: The results indicate that fishing vessel accident probability declined over the study period. Higher wind speed is associated with greater accident probability. Medium-size vessels have the highest accident probability, while small vessels have the lowest. Within the study region, accident probability is lower in the southwestern section than in the northeastern section. Accidents are likely to occur closer to shore than offshore. Accident probability is lowest in spring. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: The probability model is an important building block in development and quantitative assessment of management mechanisms related to safety in the commercial fishing industry.